第21章

Hismethodin’moralscience’followsthelinesnowlaiddown。Allinference，ashehasurged，consistsof’inductions’

and’theinterpretationofinductions。’(112*)Deductionistheapplicationtonewcasesofthelawsobservedinpreviouscases。

Asourknowledgeofsuchlawsmultiplies，sciencetendstobecomemoredeductive。Butthedeductionisstillaninduction；andthetrueantithesisisnotbetweendeductiveandinductivebutbetween’deductiveandexperimental。’(113*)Deductivereasoning，thatis，simplyappliesapreviousinduction；butreasoningbecomes’experimental’whenwehavetointerrogatenatureforafreshrule。Thishasanimportantbearinguponthenextstep。

Socialphenomenaofallkindsaresocomplexthatwecannotapplyhisfourmethods。Theybelongtotheregion(inhisphraseology)

ofthe’intermixtureoflaws’and’pluralityofcauses’；(114*)

andthoughthephrasesbeinaccurate，theexamplecertainlyillustratestheirplausibility。Experimentalreasoningisthusimpossible。Wehave，therefore，tofallbackuponthe’deductive’

method，which，indeed，wouldleadtomere’conjecture’wereitnotfortheessentialaidofVerification。(115*)ThemeaningofthisisexplainedintwochaptersreallydirectedagainstMacaulayandJamesMill，andgivingthetheorywhichhadbeensuggestedbytheircontroversy。(116*)Macaulayusedthe’chemical’method。Ifmeninsocietyformedanewproductdifferingfromtheindividualman，aswaterfromoxygenandhydrogen，or，inMill’sphrase，ifthesocialunionafforded’heteropathic’laws，weshouldhavetostudysocialscienceapartfromthescienceofindividualhumannature。Butasmeneveninsocietyarestillmen，thesociallawisderivablefromthelawsofindividualnature。Itisacaseof’compositionofcauses。’

Nowthepurelyempiricalreasonerneglectsthisobviousfact。Hereasonsfromimmediateexperiencewithoutconnectinghisconclusionswithpsychology。HearguesoffhandthatbecausetheEnglishhaveflourishedundertheoldparliamentarysystem，thereforetheoldparliamentarysystemwasperfect。ThatgivesthecrudeempiricismpreachedbyMacaulayinthenameofBacon。

JamesMill，onthecontrary，representsthe’geometricalmethod。’

Hearguedaboutpoliticsasifallconstitutionalquestionscouldbesettledlikeageometricalproblembyappealstoasingleaxiom。Thereforeadoctrineapplicabletotheimmediatequestionofparliamentaryreformwasputforwardasageneraltheoryofgovernment。MilltellsusintheAutobiography(117*)thathisreflectionuponthiscontroversyledtoacriticalpointofhisdoctrine。Sciencemustbedeductive，whentheeffectsaresimplythesumofthoseduetotheoperatingcauses；inductive，whentheyarenotthesum，thatis，when’heteropathic’lawsappear。

Hence，heinferred，politicsmustbetreateddeductively，thoughnotashisfatherhaddone，geometrically。

Boththecriticismsaremuchtothepurpose。HereIneedonlyremarkonepointwhichaffectsMill’slaterconclusions。WasMill’sinferencecorrect？Isittruethatthesocialphenomenarepresentsimplythesumoftheindividualactions？Undoubtedly，thereisagooddealtobesaidforit。Societydoesnotexistapartfromtheindividualsofwhichitisconstructed。Moreover，inagreatmanycases，ifweknowtheaveragecharacterofanindividual，wecandeducethecharacterofanumberofindividuals。Thebulkofwhatiscalledknowledgeoftheworldismadeupfrommoreorlessshrewdconjecturesastothemotivesoftheaverageman。Ifweknowwhattheaveragemanthinks，wecanguesswhatwillbetheopinionofamajorityoftheHouseofCommons。Thereare，however，twopointswhicharetakenforgranted。Inthefirstplace，ifwearetodeducethesocialphenomenafromtheindividual，wemustknowtheindividual，whoisalreadyatolerablycomplexproduct。InMill’slanguage，werequireane