第21章

Thereremain，therefore，onlySwedenandNorway。Theymay，possibly，atsomefuturetime，comewithintherangeofRussia’s，territorialappetite，butatpresenttheonlypartofthe，ScandinavianPeninsulaonwhichsheissupposedtocastlonging，eyesisabarrendistrictintheextremenorth，whichissaidto，containanexcellentwarm-waterport。

Towardsthesouth-westtherearepossibilitiesoffutureexpansion，andalreadysomepeopletalkofAustrianGaliciabeing，geographicallyandethnographicallyapartofRussia;butsolong，astheAustro-HungarianEmpireholdstogethersuchpossibilitiesdo，notcomewithinthesphereofpracticalpolitics。

Farthereast，towardstheBalkanPeninsula，theexpansivetendency，ismuchmorecomplicatedandofveryancientdate。TheRusso-Slavs，whoheldthevalleyoftheDnieperfromtheninthtothethirteenth，centurybelongedtothosenumerousfrontiertribeswhichthe，totteringByzantineEmpiresattemptedtowardoffbydiplomacyand，richgifts，andbygivingtothetroublesomechiefs，oncondition，oftheiracceptingChristianity，princessesoftheImperialfamily，asbrides。Vladimir，PrinceofKief，nowrecognisedasaSaintby，theRussianChurch，acceptedChristianityinthisway(A。D。988)，andhissubjectsfollowedhisexample。Russiathusbecame，ecclesiasticallyapartofthePatriarchateofConstantinople，and，thepeoplelearnedtoregardTsargrad——thatis，theCityofthe，Tsar，astheByzantineEmperorwasthencalled——withpeculiar，veneration。

AllthroughthelongTartardomination，whenthenomadichordes，heldthevalleyoftheDnieperandformedabarrierbetweenRussia，andtheBalkanPeninsula，thecapitaloftheGreekOrthodoxworld，wasrememberedandveneratedbytheRussianpeople，andinthe，fifteenthcenturyitacquiredintheireyesanewsignificance。At，thattimetherelativepositionsofConstantinopleandMoscowwere，changed。ConstantinoplefellunderthepoweroftheMahometan，Turks，whilstMoscowthrewofftheyokeoftheMahometanTartars，thenorthernrepresentativesoftheTurkishrace。TheGrandPrince，ofMoscowtherebybecametheProtectoroftheFaith，andinsome，sortthesuccessoroftheByzantineTsars。Tostrengthenthis，claim，IvanIII。marriedanieceofthelastByzantineEmperor，and，hissuccessorswentfurtherinthesamedirectionbyassumingthe，titleofTsar，andinventingafableabouttheirancestorRurik，havingbeenadescendantofCaesarAugustus。

Allthiswouldseemtoalawyer，oreventoadiplomatist，avery，shadowytitle，andnoneoftheRussianmonarchs——exceptperhaps，CatherineII。whoconceivedtheprojectofresuscitatingthe，ByzantineEmpire，andcausedoneofhergrandsonstolearnmodern，Greek，inviewofpossiblecontingencies——everthoughtseriouslyof，claimingtheimaginaryheritage;buttheideathattheTsarsought，toreigninTsargrad，andthatSt。Sophia，pollutedbyMoslem，abominations，shouldberestoredtotheOrthodoxChristians，struck，deeprootinthemindsoftheRussianpeople，andisstillbyno，meansextinct。Assoonasseriousdisturbancesbreakoutinthe，Eastthepeasantrybegintothinkthatperhapsthetimehascome，forundertakingacrusadefortherecoveryoftheHolyCityonthe，Bosphorus，andfortheliberationoftheirbrethreninthefaith，whogroanunderTurkishbondage。

Essentiallydifferentfromthisreligioussentiment，butoften，blendedwithit，isavaguefeelingofracialaffinity，whichhas，longexistedamongthevariousSlavnationalities，andwhichwas，greatlydevelopedduringlastcenturybywritersofthePanslavist，school。WhenGermansandItalianswerestrivingafterpolitical，independenceandunity，itnaturallyoccurredtotheSlavsthat，theymightdolikewise。Theideabecamepopularamongthesubject，SlavnationalitiesofAustriaandTurkey，anditawokeacertain，amountofenthusiasminMoscow，whereitwashopedthat“allthe，SlavstreamswoulduniteinthegreatRussianSea。”，Itrequiredno，greatpoliticalperspicacitytoforeseethatinanyconfederation，ofSlavnationalitiesthehegemonymustnecessarilydevolveon，Russia，theonlySlavStatewhichhassucceededinbecomingaGreat，Power。

Thosetwocurrentsofnationalfeelingranparallelto，and，intermingledwith，thepolicyoftheGovernment。Desirousof，becomingagreatnavalPower，Russiahasalwaysstriventoreach，thesea-coastandobtaingoodharbours。Inthenorthandnorth-

westshesucceededinacertaindegree，butneithertheWhiteSea，northeBalticsatisfiedherrequirements，andshenaturallyturned，hereyestotheMediterranean。Withdifficultyshegained，possessionofthenorthernshoresoftheBlackSea，butherdesigns，weretherebyonlyhalfrealised，becausetheTurksheldtheonly，outlettotheMediterranean，andcouldeffectuallyblockade，sofar，astheopenseaisconcerned，allherBlackSeaports，without，employingasingleshipofwar。Thusthepossessionofthe，Straits，involvingnecessarilythepossessionofConstantinople，becameacardinalpointofRussia’sforeignpolicy。Any，descriptionofthevariousmethodsadoptedbyheratdifferent，timesfortheattainmentofthisenddoesnotenterintomypresent，programme，butImaysaybrieflythattheactionofthethree，factorsabovementioned——thereligiousfeeling，thePanslavist，sentiment，andthepoliticalaims——hasneverbeenbetter，exemplifiedthaninthelaststrugglewithTurkey，culminatingin，theTreatyofSanStefanoandtheCongressofBerlin。

ForallclassesinRussiatheresultofthatstrugglewasafeeling，ofprofounddisappointment。Thepeasantrybewailedthefactthat，theCrescentonSt。SophiahadnotbeenreplacedbytheCross;the，Slavophilpatriotswereindignantthatthe“littlebrothers“had，shownthemselvesunworthyofthegenerouseffortsandsacrifices，madeontheirbehalf，andthataportionofthefutureSlav，confederationhadpassedunderthedominationofAustria;andthe，GovernmentrecognisedthattheacquisitionoftheStraitsmustbe，indefinitelypostponed。Thenhistoryrepeateditself。Afterthe，CrimeanWar，inaccordancewithPrinceGortchakoff’sfamous，epigram，LaRussieneboudepaselleserecueille，theGovernment，hadforsomeyearsabandonedanactivepolicyinEurope，and，devoteditselftotheworkofinternalreorganisation;whilstthe，militarypartyhadturnedtheirattentiontomakingnew，acquisitionsofterritoryandinfluenceinAsia。Inlikemanner，aftertheTurkishcampaignof1877-78，AlexanderIII。turninghis，backontheSlavbrethren，inauguratedaneraofpeaceinEurope，andofterritorialexpansionintheeast。Inthisdirectionthe，expansiveforcewasnotaffectedbyreligiousfeeling，or，Panslavistsentiment，andwascontrolledandguidedbypurely，politicalconsiderations。Itisconsequentlymucheasierto，determineinthisfieldofactionwhatthepoliticalaimsreally，are。

InAsia，asinEurope，thedominantfactorinthepolicyofthe，Governmenthasbeenthedesiretoreachthesea-coast;andinboth，continentstheportsfirstacquiredwereinnorthernlatitudes，wherethecoastsarefreefromiceduringonlyapartoftheyear。

Inthisrespect，NikolaefskandVladivostokintheFarEast，correspondtoArchangelandSt。PetersburginEurope。Suchports，couldnotfulfilalltherequirements，andconsequentlythe，expansivetendencyturnedsouthwards——inEuropetowardstheBlack，SeaandtheMediterranean，andinAsiatowardsthePersianGulf，theIndianOceanandtheGulfofPechili。

InPersiatheRussianGovernmentpursuesthepolicyofpacific，infiltration，andalreadythenorthernhalfoftheShah’sdominions，isprettywellpermeatedwithRussianinfluence，commercialand，political。Inthesouthernhalftheinfiltrationistosomeextent，checkedbyphysicalobstaclesandBritishinfluence，butitis，steadilyadvancing，andtheideaofobtainingaportonthePersian，Gulfiscomingwithintherangeofpracticalpolitics。

InAfghanistanalsothepressureisfelt，andheretoothe，expansivetendencymeetswithoppositionfromEngland。Morethan，oncethetwogreatPowershavecomedangerouslyneartowar——

notablyin1885，atthemomentofthePenjdehincident，whenthe，BritishParliamentvoted11，000，000poundsformilitary，preparations。Fortunatelyonthatoccasiontheproblemwassolved，bydiplomacy。ThenorthernfrontierofAfghanistanwasdemarcated，byajointcommission，andanagreementwascometobywhichthis，lineshouldformtheboundaryoftheBritishandRussianspheresof，influence。ForsomeyearsRussiascrupulouslyrespectedthis，agreement，butduringourSouthAfricandifficultiessheshowed，symptomsofdepartingfromit，andatonemomentorderswereissued，fromSt。PetersburgforamilitarydemonstrationontheAfghan，frontier。Strangetosay，themilitaryauthorities，whoare，usuallyverybellicose，deprecatedsuchamovement，ontheground，thatamilitarydemonstrationinacountrylikeAfghanistanmight，easilydevelopintoaseriouscampaign，andthataseriouscampaign，oughtnottobeundertakeninthatregionuntilafterthe，completionofthestrategicalrailwaysfromOrenburgtoTashkent。

Asthisimportantlinehasnowbeencompleted，andotherstrategic，linesareincontemplation，thequestionariseswhetherRussia，meditatesanattackonIndia。Itisaquestionwhichisnoteasily，answered。NodoubttherearemanyRussianswhothinkitwouldbea，grandthingtoannexourIndianEmpire，withitsteemingmillions，anditsimaginaryfabuloustreasures，andnotafewyoungofficers，imaginethatitwouldbeaneasytask。Further，itiscertainthat，theproblemofaninvasionhasbeenstudiedbytheHeadquarters，StaffinSt。Petersburg，justastheproblemofaninvasionof，EnglandhasbeenstudiedbytheHeadquartersStaffinBerlin。It，maybeprettysafelyasserted，however，thattheideaofaconquest，ofIndiahasneverbeenseriouslyentertainedintheRussian，officialworld。Whathasbeenseriouslyentertained，notonlyin，theofficialworld，butbytheGovernmentitself，istheidea——

stronglyrecommendedbythelateGeneralSkobelef——thatRussia，should，asquicklyaspossible，getwithinstrikingdistanceofour，Indianpossessions，sothatshemayalwaysbeabletobringstrong，diplomaticpressureontheBritishGovernment，andintheeventof，aconflictimmobilisealargepartoftheBritisharmy。

TheexpansivetendencyinthedirectionofthePersianGulfandthe，IndianOceanwasconsiderablyweakenedbythecompletionofthe，Trans-SiberianRailwayandtherapiddevelopmentofanaggressive，policyintheFareast。Never，perhaps，hastheconstructionofa，singlelineproducedsuchdeepandlastingchangesinthesphereof，Weltpolitik。

AssoonastheTrans-Siberianwasbeingrapidlyconstructeda，magnificentprospectopeneduptothegazeofimaginative，politiciansinSt。Petersburg。TheforegroundwasManchuriaa，regionof364，000squaremiles，endowedbynaturewithenormous，mineralresources，andpresentingasplendidfieldforagricultural，colonisationandcommercialenterprise。BeyondwasseenKorea，geographicallyanappendixofManchuria，possessingsplendid，harbours，andoccupiedbyaneffete，unwarlikepopulation，wholly，incapableofresistingaEuropeanPower。Thatwasquiteenoughto，inflametheimaginationofpatrioticRussians;buttherewas，somethingmore，dimlyperceivedinthebackground。Oncein，possessionofManchuria，suppliedwithanetworkofrailways，RussiawoulddominatePekingandthewholeofNorthernChina，and，shewouldthusbeabletoplayadecisivepartintheapproaching，struggleoftheEuropeanPowersfortheFar-EasternSickMan’s，inheritance。

Ofcoursetherewereobstaclesinthewayofrealisingthis，grandiosescheme，andthereweresomecoolheadsinSt。Petersburg，whowerenotslowtopointthemout。Inthefirstplacethe，undertakingmustbeextremelycostly，andtheeconomicconditionof，Russiaproperwasnotsuchastojustifytheexpenditureofan，enormouscapitalwhichmustbeformanyyearsunproductive。Any，superfluouscapitalwhichthecountrymightpossesswasmuchmore，urgentlyrequiredforpurposesofinternaldevelopment，andthe，impoverishedagriculturalpopulationoughtnottobedrainedof，theirlastmeagrereservesforthesakeofgiganticpolitical，schemeswhichdidnotdirectlycontributetotheirmaterial，welfare。Tothistheenthusiasticadvocatesoftheforwardpolicy，repliedthatthenationalfinanceshadneverbeeninsucha，prosperouscondition，thattherevenuewasincreasingbyleapsand，bounds，thatthemoneyinvestedintheproposedenterprisewould，soonberepaidwithinterest;andthatifRussiadidnotatonce，seizetheopportunityshewouldfindherselfforestalledby，energeticrivals。Therewasstill，however，oneformidable，objection。SuchanenormousincreaseofRussia’spowerintheFar，Eastwouldinevitablyarousethejealousyandoppositionofother，Powers，especiallyofJapan，forwhomthefutureofKoreaand，Manchuriawasaquestionoflifeanddeath。Hereagainthese，advocatesoftheforwardpolicyhadtheiranswerready。They，declaredthatthedangerwasmoreapparentthanreal。InFar-

EasterndiplomacytheEuropeanPowerscouldnotcompetewith，Russia，andtheymighteasilybeboughtoffbygivingthemavery，modestshareofthespoil;asforJapan，shewasnotformidable，forshewasjustemergingfromOrientalbarbarism，andallher，boastedprogresswasnothingmorethanathinveneerofEuropean，civilisation。AstheMoscowpatriotsontheeveoftheCrimeanWar，saidcontemptuouslyoftheAllies，“Wehaveonlytothrowourhats，atthem，“sonowthebelieversinRussia’shistoricmissioninthe，FarEastspokeoftheirfutureopponentsas“monkeys“and，“parrots。”

ThewarbetweenChinaandJapanin1894-5，terminatinginthe，TreatyofShimonoseki，whichcededtoJapantheLiaotungPeninsula，showedRussiathatifshewasnottobeforestalledshemustbeup，anddoing。SheaccordinglyformedacoalitionwithFranceand，Germany，andcompelledJapantowithdrawfromthemainland，onthe，pretextthattheintegrityofChinamustbemaintained。Inthis，wayChinarecovered，foramoment，abitoflostterritory，and，furtherbenefitswereconferredonherbyaguaranteeforaforeign，loan，andbythecreationoftheRusso-ChineseBank，whichwould，assistherinherfinancialaffairs。Fortheseandotherfavours，shewasexpectedtobegrateful，anditwassuggestedtoherthat，hergratitudemighttaketheformoffacilitatingtheconstruction，oftheTrans-SiberianRailway。IfconstructedwhollyonRussian，territorythelinewouldhavetomakeanenormousbendtothe，northward，whereasifitwentstraightfromLakeBaikalto，Vladivostokitwouldbeverymuchshorter，andwouldconferavery，greatbenefitonthenorth-easternprovincesoftheCelestial，Empire。Thisbenefit，moreover，mightbegreatlyincreasedby，makingabranchlinetoTalienwanandPortArthur，whichwouldsome，daybeunitedwithPeking。GraduallyLi-Hung-Changandother，influentialChineseofficialswereinducedtosympathisewiththe，scheme，andaconcessionwasgrantedforthedirectlineto，VladivostokthroughChineseterritory。

TheretrocessionoftheLiaotungPeninsulahadnotbeeneffectedby，Russiaalone。GermanyandFrancehadco-operated，andtheyalso，expectedfromChinaamarkofgratitudeinsometangibleform。On，thispointthestatesmenofBerlinheldverystrongviews，andthey，thoughtitadvisabletoobtainamaterialguaranteeforthe，fulfilmentoftheirexpectationsbyseizingKiaochau，ontheground，thatGermanmissionarieshadbeenmurderedbyChinesefanatics。

ForRussiathiswasamostunwelcomeincident。Shehadearmarked，Kiaochauforherownpurposes，andhadalreadymadeanagreement，withtheauthoritiesinPekingthattheharbourmightbeused，freelybyherfleet。Andthiswasnottheworst。Theincident，mightinaugurateaneraofpartitionforwhichshewasnotyet，prepared，andanotherportwhichshehadearmarkedforherownuse，mightbeseizedbyarival。AlreadyEnglishshipsofwarwere，reportedtobeprowlingaboutinthevicinityoftheLiaotung，Peninsula。Shehastenedtodemand，therefore，asaset-offforthe，lossofKiaochau，aleaseofPortArthurandTalienwan，anda，railwayconcessiontounitetheseportswiththeTrans-Siberian，Railway。TheChineseGovernmentwastooweaktothinkofrefusing，thedemands，andtheprocessofgraduallyabsorbingManchuria，began，inaccordancewithaplanalreadyroughlysketchedoutin，St。Petersburg。

Inthelightofafewauthenticdocumentsandmanysubsequent，events，theoutlineofthisplancanbetracedwithtolerable，accuracy。Intheregionthroughwhichtheprojectedrailwayswere，toruntherewasalargemaraudingpopulation，andconsequentlythe，labourersandtheworkswouldhavetobeprotected;andasChinese，troopscanneverbethoroughlyreliedon，theprotectingforcemust，beRussian。Underthisrathertransparentdisguiseasmallarmyof，occupationcouldbegraduallyintroduced，andinestablishinga，modusvivendibetweenitandtheChinesecivilandmilitary，authoritiesapredominantinfluenceinthelocaladministration，couldbeestablished。Atthesametime，byenergeticdiplomatic，actionatPeking，whichwouldbebroughtwithinstriking-distance，bytherailways，allrivalforeigninfluencesmightbeexcluded，fromtheoccupiedprovinces，andtherestmightbelefttothe，actionof“spontaneousinfiltration。”，Thus，whileprofessingto，upholdtheprincipleoftheterritorialintegrityoftheCelestial，Empire，theCabinetofSt。Petersburgmightpracticallyannexthe，wholeofManchuriaandtransformPortArthurintoagreatnaval，portandarsenal，afarmoreeffectual“DominatoroftheEast“than，Vladivostok，whichwasintended，asitsnameimplies，tofulfil，thatfunction。FromManchuriathepoliticalinfluenceandthe，spontaneousinfiltrationwouldnaturallyextendtoKorea，andon，thedeeplyindentedcoastoftheHermitKingdomnewportsand，arsenals，farmorespaciousandstrategicallymoreimportantthan，PortArthur，mightbeconstructed。

Thegrandioseschemewascarefullylaid，andforatimeitwas，favouredbycircumstances。In1900theBoxertroublesjustified，RussiainsendingalargeforceintoManchuria，andenabledher，subsequentlytoplaythepartofChina’sprotectoragainstthe，inordinatedemandsoftheWesternPowersforcompensationand，guarantees。Foramomentitseemedasiftheslowprocessof，gradualinfiltrationmightbereplacedbyamoreexpeditiousmode，ofannexation。AsthedexterousdiplomacyofIgnatiefin1858had，inducedtheSonofHeaventocedetoRussiatherichPrimorsk，provincesbetweentheAmurandthesea，ascompensationforRussian，protectionagainsttheEnglishandFrench，whohadburnthisSummer，Palace，sohissuccessormightnowperhapsbeinducedtocede，ManchuriatotheTsarforsimilarreasons。

Nosuchcessionactuallytookplace，buttheRussiandiplomatists，inPekingcouldusethegratitudeargumentinsupportoftheir，demandsforanextensionoftherightsandprivilegesofthe，“temporary“occupation;andwhenChinasoughttoresistthe，pressurebyleaningontherivalPowersshefoundthemtobelittle，betterthanbrokenreeds。Francecouldnotopenlyopposeherally，andGermanyhadreasonsofherownforconciliatingtheTsar，whilstEnglandandtheUnitedStates，thoughavowedlyopposingthe，schemeasdangeroustotheircommercialinterests，werenot，preparedtogotowarindefenceoftheirpolicy。Itseemed，therefore，thatbypatience，tenacityanddiplomaticdexterity，Russiamightultimatelyattainherends;butasurprisewasin，storeforher。TherewasonePowerwhichrecognisedthatherown，vitalinterestswereatstake，andwhichwasreadytoundertakea，life-and-deathstruggleindefenceofthem。

Thoughstillsmartingunderthehumiliationofherexpulsionfrom，theLiaotungPeninsulain1895，andwatchingwiththekeenest，interesteverymoveinthepoliticalgame，Japanhadremainedfor，sometimeinthebackground，andhadconfinedhereffortsto，resistingRussianinfluenceinKoreaandsupportingdiplomatically，thePowerswhowereupholdingthepolicyoftheopendoor。Now，whenithadbecomeevidentthattheWesternPowerswouldnot，preventtherealisationoftheRussianscheme，shedeterminedto，interveneenergetically，andtostakehernationalexistenceonthe，result。Eversince1895shehadbeenmakingmilitaryandnaval，preparationsforthedayoftherevanche，andnowthatdaywasat，hand。Againstthedangerofacoalitionsuchashadcheckmatedher，onthepreviousoccasionshewasprotectedbythealliancewhich，shehadconcludedwithEnglandin1902，andshefeltconfidentthat，withRussiaaloneshewasquitecapableofdealingsingle-handed。

Herpositionisbrieflyandgraphicallydescribedinadespatch，telegraphedatthattime(28thJuly，1903)bytheJapanese，GovernmenttoitsrepresentativeatSt。Petersburg，instructinghim，toopennegotiations：

“TherecentconductofRussiainmakingnewdemandsatPekingand，tighteningherholduponManchuriahasledtheImperialGovernment，tobelievethatshemusthaveabandonedherintentionofretiring，fromthatprovince。Atthesametime，herincreasedactivityupon，theKoreanfrontierissuchastoraisedoubtsastothelimitsof，herambition。Theunconditionalandpermanentoccupationof，ManchuriabyRussiawouldcreateastateofthingsprejudicialto，thesecurityandinterestsofJapan。Theprincipleofequal，opportunity(theopendoor)wouldtherebybeannulled，andthe，territorialintegrityofChinaimpaired。Thereis，however，a，stillmoreseriousconsiderationfortheJapaneseGovernment。If，RussiawereestablishedontheflankofKoreashewouldconstantly，menacetheseparateexistenceofthatEmpire，oratleastexercise，initapredominantinfluence;andasJapanconsidersKoreaan，importantoutpostinherlineofdefence，sheregardsits，independenceasabsolutelyessentialtoherownreposeandsafety。

Moreover，thepoliticalaswellascommercialandindustrial，interestsandinfluencewhichJapanpossessesinKoreaare，paramountoverthoseofotherPowers;shecannot，havingregardto，herownsecurity，consenttosurrenderthemto，orsharethemwith，anotherPower。”

InaccordancewiththisviewofthesituationtheJapanese，GovernmentinformedCountLamsdorffthat，asitdesiredtoremove，fromtherelationsofthetwoEmpireseverycauseoffuture，misunderstanding，itwouldbegladtoenterwiththeImperial，RussianGovernmentuponanexaminationoftheconditionofaffairs，intheFarEast，withaviewtodefiningtherespectivespecial，interestsofthetwocountriesinthoseregions。

ThoughCountLamsdorffacceptedtheproposalwithapparent，cordialityandprofessedtoregarditasameansofpreventingany，outsiderfromsowingtheseedsofdiscordbetweenthetwo，countries，theideaofageneraldiscussionwasnotatallwelcome。

Carefuldefinitionofrespectiveinterestswasthelastthingthe，RussianGovernmentdesired。Itspolicywastokeepthewhole，situationinahazeuntilithadconsolidateditspositionin，ManchuriaandontheKoreanfrontiertosuchanextentthatit，coulddictateitsowntermsinanyfuturearrangement。Itcould，not，however，consistentlywithitsoft-repeateddeclarationsof，disinterestednessandloveofpeace，declinetodiscussthe，subject。Itconsented，therefore，toanexchangeofviews，butin，ordertoensurethatthetighteningofitsholdontheterritories，inquestionshouldproceedparipassuwiththediplomaticaction，itmadeanextraordinarydeparturefromordinaryprocedure，entrustingtheconductoftheaffair，nottoCountLamsdorffand，theForeignOffice，buttoAdmiralAlexeyef，thenewlycreated，ViceroyoftheFarEast，inwhomwasvestedthecontrolofall，civil，military，naval，anddiplomaticaffairsrelatingtothat，partoftheworld。

Fromthecommencementofthenegotiations，whichlastedfromAugust，12th，1903，toFebruary6th，1904，theirreconcilabledifferences，ofthetworivalsbecameapparent，andallthroughthe，correspondence，inwhichafewapparentconcessionswereofferedby，Japan，neitherPowerretreatedastepfromthepositionsoriginally，takenup。WhatJapansuggestedwas，roughlyspeaking，amutual，engagementtoupholdtheindependenceandintegrityoftheChinese，andKoreanempires，andatthesametimeabilateralarrangementby，whichthespecialinterestsofthetwocontractingpartiesin，ManchuriaandinKoreashouldbeformallyrecognised，andthemeans，ofprotectingthemclearlydefined。Theschemedidnotcommend，itselftotheRussians。Theysystematicallyignoredtheinterests，ofJapaninManchuria，andmaintainedthatshehadnorightto，interfereinanyarrangementstheymightthinkfittomakewiththe，ChineseGovernmentwithregardtothatprovince。Intheiropinion，JapanoughttorecogniseformallythatManchurialayoutsideher，sphereofinterest，andthenegotiationsshouldbeconfinedto，limitingherfreedomofactioninKorea。

Withsuchawidedivergenceinprinciplethetwopartieswerenot，likelytoagreeinmattersofdetail。Theirconflictingaimscame，outmostclearlyinthequestionoftheopendoor。TheJapanese，insistedonobtainingtheprivilegesoftheopendoor，including，therightofsettlementinManchuria，andRussiaobstinately，refused。HavingmarkedoutManchuriaasaclosereserveforher，owncolonisation，trade，andindustry，andknowingthatshecould，notcompetewiththeJapaneseiftheywerefreelyadmitted，she，couldnotadopttheprincipleof“equalopportunity“whichher，rivalsrecommended。AfidusachatesofAdmiralAlexeyefexplained，tomequitefrankly，duringthenegotiations，whynoconcessions，couldbemadeonthatpoint。Intheworkofestablishinglawand，orderinManchuria，constructingroads，bridges，railways，and，towns，Russiahadexpendedanenormoussum——estimatedbyCount，Cassiniat60，000，000pounds——anduntilthatcapitalwasrecovered，oruntilareasonableinterestwasderivedfromtheinvestment，Russiacouldnotthinkofsharingwithanyonethefruitsofthe，prosperitywhichshehadcreated。

Weneednotgofurtherintothedetailsofthenegotiations。Japan，soonconvincedherselfthattheonwardmarchoftheColossuswas，nottobestoppedbypaperbarricades，andknowingwellthather，actualmilitaryandnavalsuperioritywasbeingrapidlydiminished，byRussia’swarlikepreparations，*shesuddenlybrokeoff，diplomaticrelationsandcommencedhostilities。

*AccordingtoanestimatemadebytheJapaneseauthorities，betweenApril，1903，andtheoutbreakofthewar，Russiaincreased，hernavalandmilitaryforcesintheFarEastbynineteenwar，vessels，aggregating82，415tons，and40，000soldiers。Inaddition，tothis，onebattleship，threecruisers，seventorpedodestroyers，andfourtorpedoboats，aggregatingabout37，040tons，wereon，theirwaytotheEast，andpreparationshadbeenmadefor，increasingthelandforcesby200，000men。Forfurtherdetails，seeAsakawa，“TheRusso-JapaneseConflict“(London，1904)，pp。352-

54。

Russiathusfoundherselfengagedinawarofthefirstmagnitude，ofwhichnoonecanpredicttheultimateconsequences，andthe，questionnaturallyarisesastowhy，withanEmperorwholately，aspiredtoplayinpoliticsthepartofagreatpeacemaker，she，provokedaconflict，forwhichshewasveryimperfectlyprepared——

imposingonherselftheobligationofdefendinganavalfortress，hastilyconstructedonforeignterritory，andunitedwithherbase，byasinglelineofrailway6，000mileslong。Thequestionis，easilyanswered：shedidnotbelieveinthepossibilityofwar。

TheEmperorwasfirmlyresolvedthathewouldnotattackJapan，and，noonewouldadmitforamomentthatJapancouldhavetheaudacity，toattackthegreatRussianEmpire。Inthelateautumnof1903，it，istrue，afewwell-informedofficialsinSt。Petersburg，influencedbythewarningsofBaronRosen，theRussianMinisterin，Tokio，begantoperceivethatperhapsJapanwouldprovokea，conflict，buttheywereconvincedthatthemilitaryandnaval，preparationsalreadymadewerequitesufficienttorepelthe，attack。Oneoftheseofficials——probablythebestinformedofall——

saidtomequitefrankly：“IfJapanhadattackedusinMayor，June，weshouldhavebeeninasorryplight，butnow[November，1903]weareready。”

ThewholepasthistoryofterritoralexpansioninAsiatendedto，confirmtheprevailingillusions。Russiahadadvancedsteadily，fromtheUralandtheCaspiantotheHinduKushandtheNorthern，Pacificwithoutonceencounteringseriousresistance。Notoncehad，shebeencalledontomakeagreatnationaleffort，andthearmed，resistanceofthenativeraceshadneverinflictedonheranything，worsethanpin-pricks。FromdecrepitChina，whichpossessedno，armyintheEuropeansenseoftheterm，amoreenergeticresistance，wasnottobeexpected。HadnotMuravieffAmurskiwithafew，CossacksquietlyoccupiedherAmurterritorieswithoutprovoking，anythingmoredangerousthanadiplomaticprotest;andhadnot，IgnatiefannexedherrichPrimorskprovinces，includingthesiteof，Vladivostok，bypurelydiplomaticmeans？，WhyshouldnotCount，Cassini，adiplomatistofthesametypeasIgnatief，imitatehis，adroitpredecessor，andsecureforRussia，ifnottheformal，annexation，atleastthepermanentoccupation，ofManchuria？

Rememberingallthis，wecanperceivethatthegreatmistakeofthe，RussianGovernmentisnotsoverydifficulttoexplain。It，certainlydidnotwantwar——farfromit——butitwantedtoobtain，Manchuriabyagradual，painlessprocessofabsorption，anditdid，notperceivethatthiscouldnotbeattainedwithoutalife-and-

deathstrugglewithayoung，vigorousnationality，whichhas，contrivedtocombinethepassionsandvirtuesofaprimitiverace，withtheorganisingpowersandscientificappliancesofthemost，advancedcivilisation。

Russianterritorialexpansionhasthusbeenchecked，forsomeyears，tocome，onthePacificcoast;buttheexpansivetendencywillre-

appearsooninotherregions，anditbehoovesustobewatchful，because，whateverdirectionitmaytake，itislikelytoaffectour，interestsdirectlyorindirectly。Willitconfineitselfforsome，yearstoaprocessofinfiltrationinMongoliaandNorthernThibet，thelineofleastresistance？，OrwillitimpingeonourIndian，frontier，directedbythosewhodesiretoavengethemselveson，Japan’sallyforthereversessustainedinManchuria？，Orwillit，oncemoretakethedirectionoftheBosphorous，whereacampaign，mightbeexpectedtoawakenreligiousandwarlikeenthusiasmamong，themasses？，TothesequestionsIcannotgiveanyanswer，because，somuchdependsontheinternalconsequencesofthepresentwar，andonaccidentalcircumstanceswhichnoonecanatpresent，foresee。Ihavealwaysdesired，andstilldesire，thatweshould，cultivatefriendlyrelationswithourgreatrival，andthatwe，shouldlearntoappreciatethemanygoodqualitiesofherpeople;

butIhaveatthesametimealwaysdesiredthatweshouldkeepa，watchfuleyeonherirrepressibletendencytoexpand，andthatwe，shouldtaketimelyprecautionsagainstanyunprovokedaggression，howeverjustifiableitmayseemtoherfromthepointofviewof，herownnationalinterests。

CHAPTERXXXIX

THEPRESENTSITUATION

ReformorRevolution？——Reigns