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KingsmighthelpProvidence。AnewTrajanwoulddeservetobecalledthefatherofhispeople，ifheincreasedthemarriage-rate。Malthusrepliesthatthestatisticswhichtheworthymanhimselfproducedshowedconclusivelythatthemarriagesdependeduponthedeaths。Thebirthsfillupthevacancies，andtheprincewhoincreasedthepopulationbeforevacanciesarosewouldsimplyincreasetherateofmortality。60Ifyouwanttoincreaseyourbirth-ratewithoutabsolutelyproducingfamine，asheremarksafterwards，61makeyourtownsunhealthy，andencouragesettlementbymarshes。Youmightthusdoublethemortality，andwemightallmarryprematurelywithoutbeingabsolutelystarved。Hisownaimisnottosecurethegreatestnumberofbirths，buttobesurethatthegreatestnumberofthosebornmaybesupported。62TheingeniousM。Muret，again，hadfoundaSwissparishinwhichthemeanlifewasthehighestandthefecunditysmallestknown。HepiouslyconjecturesthatitmaybealawofGodthat’theforceoflifeineachcountryshouldbeintheinverseratioofitsfecundity。’Heneedsnotbetakehimselftoamiracle，saysMalthus。63Thecaseissimplythatinasmallandhealthyvillage，wherepeoplehadbecomeawareoftheimportanceofthe’preventivecheck，’theyoungpeopleputoffmarriagetilltherewasroomforthem，andconsequentlybothloweredthebirthrateandraisedtheaveragedurationoflife。
Nothing，saysMalthusveryforcibly，hascausedmoreerrorsthantheconfusionbetween’relativeandpositive，andbetweencauseandeffect。’64Heishereansweringtheargumentthatbecausethepoorwhohadcowswerethemostindustrious，thewaytomakethemindustriouswastogivethemcows。Malthusthinksitmoreprobablethatindustrygotthecowthanthatthecowproducedindustry。
Thisisatriflinginstanceofaverygeneraltruth。Peoplehadbeencontenttonoticethedeathscausedbywaranddisease，andtoinferatoncethatwhatcauseddeathmustdiminishpopulation。Malthusshowsthenecessityofobservingothercollateralresults。Thegapmaybemadesogreatastodiminishpopulation；butitmaybecompensatedbyamorerapidreproduction；
or，therapidityofreproductionmayitselfbethecauseofthedisease；
sothattoremoveonekindofmortalitymaybeonsomeoccasiontointroduceothers。Thestreamisdammedononebreachtoflowmorestronglythroughotheroutlets。65
Thisis，Iconceive，tosaysimplythatMalthuswasintroducingareallyscientificmethod。Thefactstakeninthetrueorderbecameatonceintelligibleinsteadofsuggestingmysteriousandirregularinterferences。Earlierwritershadbeencontenttosingleoutoneparticularsetofphenomenawithoutattendingtoitsplaceinthemoregeneralandcomplexprocesses，ofwhichtheyformedanintegralpart。Infanticide，asHumehadpointedout，mighttendtoincreasepopulation。66Inprospect，itmightencouragepeopletohavebabies；andwhenbabiescame，naturalaffectionmightpreventtheactualcarryingoutoftheintention。Tojudgeoftheactualeffect，wehavetoconsiderthewholeoftheconcretecase。Itmaybecarriedout，asapparentlyintheSouthSeaislands，sogenerallyastolimitpopulation；oritmaybe，asinChina，anindicationthatthepressureissogreatthatanumberofinfantsbecomesuperfluous。Itssuppressionmight，intheonecase，leadtoanincreaseofthepopulation；intheother，totheincreaseofotherformsofmortality。Malthus’sinvestigationsillustratethenecessityofreferringeveryparticularprocesstoitsplaceinthewholesystem，ofnotinghowanygivenchangemightsetupasetofactionsandreactionsinvirtueofthegeneralelasticityofpopulation，andthusofconstantlyreferringateverysteptothegeneralconditionsofhumanlife。Hesucceededinmakingmanypointsclear，andofshowinghowhastilymanyinferenceshadbeendrawn。Heexplained，forexample，whytherevolutionarywarshadnotdiminishedthepopulationofFrance，inspiteofthegreatnumberofdeaths，67andthusgaveanexampleofasoundmethodofinquirywhichhasexercisedagreatinfluenceuponlaterobservers。Malthuswasconstantlymisunderstoodandmisrepresented，andhisopponentsoftenallegeasfatalobjectionstohisdoctrinetheveryfactsbywhichitwasreallysupported。Butwemay，Ithink，say，thatsincehiswritingnoseriouseconomicalwriterhasadoptedtheoldhastyguesses，orhasventuredtoproposeatheorywithoutregardtotheprinciplesofwhichhefirstbroughtoutthefullsignificance。
V。POLITICALAPPLICATIO
