第1章

RETROSPECTIVEPROPHECYASAFUNCTIONOFSCIENCE

"UnemarqueplussurequetoutescellesdeZadig。"<1>——Cuvier。

Itisanusualandacommendablepracticetoprefacethediscussionoftheviewsofaphilosophicthinkerbysomeaccountofthemanandofthecircumstanceswhichshapedhislifeandcolouredhiswayoflookingatthings;but，thoughZadigiscitedinoneofthemostimportantchaptersofCuvier’sgreatestwork，littleisknownabouthim，andthatlittlemightperhapsbebetterauthenticatedthanitis。

ItissaidthathelivedatBabyloninthetimeofKingMoabdar;

butthenameofMoabdardoesnotappearinthelistofBabyloniansovereignsbroughttolightbythepatienceandtheindustryofthedecipherersofcuneiforminscriptionsintheselateryears;norindeedamIawarethatthereisanyotherauthorityforhisexistencethanthatofthebiographerofZadig，oneArouetdeVoltaire，amongwhosemoreconspicuousmeritsstricthistoricalaccuracyisperhapshardlytobereckoned。

HappilyZadigisinthepositionofagreatmanyotherphilosophers。Whathewaslikewhenhewasintheflesh，indeedwhetherheexistedatall，aremattersofnogreatconsequence。

Whatwecareaboutinalightisthatitshowstheway，notwhetheritislamporcandle，talloworwax。OuronlyrealinterestinZadigliesintheconceptionsofwhichheistheputativefather;andhisbiographerhasstatedthesewithsomuchclearnessandvivaciousillustration，thatweneedhardlyfeelapang，evenifcriticalresearchshouldproveKingMoabdarandalltherestofthestorytobeunhistorical，andreduceZadighimselftotheshadowyconditionofasolarmyth。

Voltairetellsusthat，disenchantedwithlifebysundrydomesticmisadventures，ZadigwithdrewfromtheturmoilofBabylontoasecludedretreatonthebanksoftheEuphrates，wherehebeguiledhissolitudebythestudyofnature。

Themanifoldwondersoftheworldoflifehadaparticularattractionforthelonelystudent;incessantandpatientobservationoftheplantsandanimalsabouthimsharpenedhisnaturallygoodpowersofobservationandofreasoning;until，atlength，heacquiredasagacitywhichenabledhimtoperceiveendlessminutedifferencesamongobjectswhich，totheuntutoredeye，appearedabsolutelyalike。

Itmighthavebeenexpectedthatthisenlargementofthepowersofthemindandofitsstoreofnaturalknowledgecouldtendtonothingbuttheincreaseofaman’sownwelfareandthegoodofhisfellow—men。ButZadigwasfatedtoexperiencethevanityofsuchexpectations。

"Oneday，walkingnearalittlewood，hesaw，hasteningthatway，oneoftheQueen’schiefeunuchs，followedbyatroopofofficials，whoappearedtobeinthegreatestanxiety，runninghitherandthitherlikemendistraught，insearchofsomelosttreasure。

"’Youngman，’criedtheeunuch，’haveyouseentheQueen’sdog？’

Zadigansweredmodestly，’Abitch，Ithink，notadog。’

’Quiteright，’repliedtheeunuch;andZadigcontinued，’Averysmallspanielwhohaslatelyhadpuppies;shelimpswiththeleftforeleg，andhasverylongears。’’Ah！youhaveseenherthen，’saidthebreathlesseunuch。’No，’answeredZadig，’Ihavenotseenher;andIreallywasnotawarethattheQueenpossessedaspaniel。’

"Byanoddcoincidence，attheverysametime，thehandsomesthorseintheKing’sstablesbrokeawayfromhisgroomintheBabylonianplain。Thegrandhuntsmanandallhisstaffwereseekingthehorsewithasmuchanxietyastheeunuchandhispeoplethespaniel;andthegrandhuntsmanaskedZadigifhehadnotseentheKing’shorsegothatway。

"’Afirst—rategalloper，small—hoofed，fivefeethigh;

tailthreefeetandahalflong;cheekpiecesofthebitoftwenty—threecaratgold;shoessilver？’saidZadig。

"’Whichwaydidhego？Whereishe？’criedthegrandhuntsman。

"’Ihavenotseenanythingofthehorse，andIneverheardofhimbefore，’repliedZadig。

"ThegrandhuntsmanandthechiefeunuchmadesurethatZadighadstolenboththeKing’shorseandtheQueen’sspaniel，sotheyhaledhimbeforetheHighCourtofDesterham，whichatoncecondemnedhimtotheknout，andtransportationforlifetoSiberia。Butthesentencewashardlypronouncedwhenthelosthorseandspanielwerefound。Sothejudgeswereunderthepainfulnecessityofreconsideringtheirdecision:buttheyfinedZadigfourhundredouncesofgoldforsayinghehadseenthatwhichhehadnotseen。

"Thefirstthingwastopaythefine;afterwardsZadigwaspermittedtoopenhisdefencetothecourt，whichhedidinthefollowingterms:

"’Starsofjustice，abyssesofknowledge，mirrorsoftruth，whosegravityisasthatoflead，whoseinflexibilityisasthatofiron，whorivalthediamondinclearness，andpossessnolittleaffinitywithgold;sinceIampermittedtoaddressyouraugustassembly，IswearbyOrmuzdthatIhaveneverseentherespectableladydogoftheQueen，norbeheldthesacrosancthorseoftheKingofKings。

"’Thisiswhathappened。IwastakingawalktowardsthelittlewoodnearwhichIsubsequentlyhadthehonourtomeetthevenerablechiefeunuchandthemostillustriousgrandhuntsman。

Inoticedthetrackofananimalinthesand，anditwaseasytoseethatitwasthatofasmalldog。Longfaintstreaksuponthelittleelevationsofsandbetweenthefootmarksconvincedmethatitwasashedogwithpendentdugs，showingthatshemusthavehadpuppiesnotmanydayssince。Otherscrapingsofthesand，whichalwayslayclosetothemarksoftheforepaws，indicatedthatshehadverylongears;and，astheimprintofonefootwasalwaysfainterthanthoseoftheotherthree，I

judgedthattheladydogofouraugustQueenwas，ifImayventuretosayso，alittlelame。

"’WithrespecttothehorseoftheKingofKings，permitmetoobservethat，wanderingthroughthepathswhichtraversethewood，Inoticedthemarksofhorse—shoes。Theywereallequidistant。"Ah！"saidI，"thisisafamousgalloper。"Inanarrowalley，onlysevenfeetwide，thedustuponthetrunksofthetreeswasalittledisturbedatthreefeetandahalffromthemiddleofthepath。"Thishorse，"saidItomyself，"hadatailthreefeetandahalflong，and，lashingitfromonesidetotheother，hehassweptawaythedust。"Branchesofthetreesmetoverheadattheheightoffivefeet，andunderthemIsawnewlyfallenleaves;soIknewthatthehorsehadbrushedsomeofthebranches，andwasthereforefivefeethigh。Astohisbit，itmusthavebeenmadeoftwenty—threecaratgold，forhehadrubbeditagainstastone，whichturnedouttobeatouchstone，withthepropertiesofwhichIamfamiliarbyexperiment。Lastly，bythemarkswhichhisshoesleftuponpebblesofanotherkind，Iwasledtothinkthathisshoeswereoffinesilver。’

"AllthejudgesadmiredZadig’sprofoundandsubtlediscernment;

andthefameofitreachedeventheKingandtheQueen。Fromtheante—roomstothepresence—chamber，Zadig’snamewasineverybody’smouth;and，althoughmanyofthemagiwereofopinionthatheoughttobeburntasasorcerer，theKingcommandedthatthefourhundredouncesofgoldwhichhehadbeenfinedshouldberestoredtohim。Sotheofficersofthecourtwentinstatewiththefourhundredounces;onlytheyretainedthreehundredandninety—eightforlegalexpenses，andtheirservantsexpectedfees。"

ThosewhoareinterestedinlearningmoreofthefatefulhistoryofZadigmustturntotheoriginal;wearedealingwithhimonlyasaphilosopher，andthisbriefexcerptsufficesfortheexemplificationofthenatureofhisconclusionsandofthemethodsbywhichhearrivedatthem。

Theseconclusionsmaybesaidtobeofthenatureofretrospectiveprophecies;thoughitisperhapsalittlehazardoustoemployphraseologywhichperilouslysuggestsacontradictioninterms——theword"prophecy"beingsoconstantly，inordinaryuse，restrictedto"foretelling。"Strictly，however，thetermprophecyappliesasmuchtooutspeakingastoforetelling;and，evenintherestrictedsenseof"divination，"

itisobviousthattheessenceofthepropheticoperationdoesnotlieinitsbackwardorforwardrelationtothecourseoftime，butinthefactthatitistheapprehensionofthatwhichliesoutofthesphereofimmediateknowledge;theseeingofthatwhich，tothenaturalsenseoftheseer，isinvisible。

Theforetellerassertsthat，atsomefuturetime，aproperlysituatedobserverwillwitnesscertainevents;theclairvoyantdeclaresthat，atthispresenttime，certainthingsaretobewitnessedathousandmilesaway;theretrospectiveprophet（wouldthatthereweresuchawordas"backteller！"）affirmsthat，somanyhoursoryearsago，suchandsuchthingsweretobeseen。Inallthesecases，itisonlytherelationtotimewhichalters——theprocessofdivinationbeyondthelimitsofpossibledirectknowledgeremainsthesame。

NodoubtitwastheirinstinctiverecognitionoftheanalogybetweenZadig’sresultsandthoseobtainedbyauthorisedinspirationwhichinspiredtheBabylonianmagiwiththedesiretoburnthephilosopher。Zadigadmittedthathehadnevereitherseenorheardofthehorseofthekingorofthespanielofthequeen;andyetheventuredtoassertinthemostpositivemannerthatanimalsansweringtotheirdescriptiondidactuallyexistandranabouttheplainsofBabylon。Ifhismethodwasgoodforthedivinationofthecourseofeventstenhoursold，whyshoulditnotbegoodforthoseoftenyearsortencenturiespast;nay，mightitnotextendtenthousandyearsandjustifytheimpiousinmeddlingwiththetraditionsofOannesandthefish，andallthesacredfoundationsofBabyloniancosmogony？

Butthiswasnottheworst。TherewasanotherconsiderationwhichobviouslydictatedtothemorethoughtfulofthemagitheproprietyofburningZadigoutofhand。Hisdefencewasworsethanhisoffence。Itshowedthathismodeofdivinationwasfraughtwithdangertomagianismingeneral。Swollenwiththeprideofhumanreason，hehadignoredtheestablishedcanonsofmagianlore;and，trustingtowhatafterallwasmerecarnalcommonsense，heprofessedtoleadmentoadeeperinsightintonaturethanmagianwisdom，withallitsloftyantagonismtoeverythingcommon，hadeverreached。What，infact，layatthefoundationofallZadig’sargumentbutthecoarsecommonplaceassumption，uponwhicheveryactofourdailylivesisbased，thatwemayconcludefromaneffecttothepre—existenceofacausecompetenttoproducethateffect？

Thetrackswereexactlylikethosewhichdogsandhorsesleave;

thereforetheyweretheeffectsofsuchanimalsascauses。

Themarksatthesidesofthefore—printsofthedogtrackwereexactlysuchaswouldbeproducedbylongtrailingears;

thereforethedog’slongearswerethecausesofthesemarks——

andsoon。Nothingcanbemorehopelesslyvulgar，moreunlikethemajesticdevelopmentofasystemofgrandlyunintelligibleconclusionsfromsublimelyinconceivablepremissessuchasdelightsthemagianheart。Infact，Zadig’smethodwasnothingbutthemethodofallmankind。Retrospectiveprophecies，farmoreastonishingfortheirminuteaccuracythanthoseofZadig，arefamiliartothosewhohavewatchedthedailylifeofnomadicpeople。

Fromfreshlybrokentwigs，crushedleaves，disturbedpebbles，andimprintshardlydiscerniblebytheuntrainedeye，suchgraduatesintheUniversityofNaturewilldivine，notonlythefactthatapartyhaspassedthatway，butitsstrength，itscomposition，thecourseittook，andthenumberofhoursordayswhichhaveelapsedsinceitpassed。Buttheyareabletodothisbecause，likeZadig，theyperceiveendlessminutedifferenceswhereuntrainedeyesdiscernnothing;andbecausetheunconsciouslogicofcommonsensecompelsthemtoaccountfortheseeffectsbythecauseswhichtheyknowtobecompetenttoproducethem。

AndsuchmeremethodisedsavagerywastodiscoverthehiddenthingsofnaturebetterthanapriorideductionsfromthenatureofOrmuzd——perhapstogiveahistoryofthepast，inwhichOanneswouldbealtogetherignored！Decidedlyitwerebettertoburnthismanatonce。

Ifinstinct，oranunwonteduseofreason，ledMoabdar’smagitothisconclusiontwoorthreethousandyearsago，allthatcanbesaidisthatsubsequenthistoryhasfullyjustifiedthem。

FortherigorousapplicationofZadig’slogictotheresultsofaccurateandlong—continuedobservationhasfoundedallthosescienceswhichhavebeentermedhistoricalorpalaetiological，becausetheyareretrospectivelypropheticandstrivetowardsthereconstructioninhumanimaginationofeventswhichhavevanishedandceasedtobe。

History，intheordinaryacceptationoftheword，isbasedupontheinterpretationofdocumentaryevidence;anddocumentswouldhavenoevidentialvalueunlesshistorianswerejustifiedintheirassumptionthattheyhavecomeintoexistencebytheoperationofcausessimilartothoseofwhichdocumentsare，inourpresentexperience，theeffects。Ifawrittenhistorycanbeproducedotherwisethanbyhumanagency，orifthemanwhowroteagivendocumentwasactuatedbyotherthanordinaryhumanmotives，suchdocumentsareofnomoreevidentialvaluethansomanyarabesques。

Archaeology，whichtakesupthethreadofhistorybeyondthepointatwhichdocumentaryevidencefailsus，couldhavenoexistence，exceptforourwellgroundedconfidencethatmonumentsandworksofartorartifice，haveneverbeenproducedbycausesdifferentinkindfromthosetowhichtheynowowetheirorigin。Andgeology，whichtracesbackthecourseofhistorybeyondthelimitsofarchaeology，couldtellusnothingexceptfortheassumptionthat，millionsofyearsago，water，heat，gravitation，friction，animalandvegetablelife，causedeffectsofthesamekindastheynowcause。Nay，evenphysicalastronomy，insofarasittakesusbacktotheuttermostpointoftimewhichpalaetiologicalsciencecanreach，isfoundeduponthesameassumption。Ifthelawofgravitationeverfailedtobetrue，eventoasmallextent，forthatperiod，thecalculationsoftheastronomerhavenoapplication。

Thepowerofprediction，ofprospectiveprophecy，isthatwhichiscommonlyregardedasthegreatprerogativeofphysicalscience。Andtrulyitisawonderfulfactthatonecangointoashopandbuyforasmallpriceabook，the"NauticalAlmanac，"

whichwillforetelltheexactpositiontobeoccupiedbyoneofJupiter’smoonssixmonthshence;nay，more，that，ifitwereworthwhile，theAstronomer—Royalcouldfurnishuswithasinfallibleapredictionapplicableto1980or2980。

Butastronomyisnotlessremarkableforitspowerofretrospectiveprophecy。

Thales，oldestofGreekphilosophers，thedatesofwhosebirthanddeathareuncertain，butwhoflourishedabout600

B。C。，issaidtohaveforetoldaneclipseofthesunwhichtookplaceinhistimeduringabattlebetweentheMedesandtheLydians。SirGeorgeAiryhaswrittenaverylearnedandinterestingmemoir<2>inwhichheprovesthatsuchaneclipsewasvisibleinLydiaontheafternoonofthe28thofMayintheyear585B。C。